There have been rumblings of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan coming this fall. The prediction comes from leaked Russian intelligence documents and cable news military experts. It is no secret that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to unify the renegade island with the mainland as part of its ‘One China’ policy. Most experts think it is not a question of if China is going to invade, it is only a question of when.
Chen Ming-tong, the director general of Taiwan’s national-security bureau, gave a speech recently where he told the assembled Taiwanese legislators that China was not invading in the fall, but the leaks were part of an information warfare campaign against the country. Such a tactic would be in alignment with China’s stated practice of 5th generational warfare, or war 5.0.
China’s current strategy involves winning wars without engaging in traditional kinetic action against a foe. Instead, they attempt to demoralize and destabilize countries by attacking them at the institutional levels of culture, government and entertainment. A fearful and demoralized Taiwan is more likely to agree to Chinese demands. Although it is unlikely the country would vote to be absorbed into China, a weakened Taiwan is in China’s best interest.
Another reason China may be rethinking an invasion strategy is because of what it is observing happen in Ukraine. Russia has a superior army and is applying overwhelming force in its war against Ukraine. The small country has been able to force a stalemate due to its tenacious defense and, more importantly, its modern weapons.
NATO has been pouring arms in the country and President Zelensky and his army have put them to effective use. The Russian’s have taken huge losses. So much so, that they have instituted a draft in addition to their normal conscription of fighting age males. The days of an easy victory are gone. Russia will pay dearly with blood and treasure for it to be successful in taking Ukraine.
China is afraid of falling into the exact same trap, plus there is the added complexity of it having to be an amphibious invasion. The CCP has always been patient with its plans. Given recent events, there is no reason to believe they are in any hurry to subdue the island. The world at large hopes that is indeed true.