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With just one day until Election Day, President Donald Trump continues to gain ground on Democratic challenger Joe Biden, indicating the president may have momentum on his side when it matters most.
Now, the latest poll surveying voter support in Pennsylvania has found that Trump has cut Biden’s lead in the Keystone State, which will likely be critical to winning the election.
What are the details?
The Monmouth Poll released Monday found that Biden’s lead over Trump in Pennsylvania is between five and seven points, depending on voter turnout.
According to Monmouth, Biden leads Trump by seven points under a high voter turnout scenario, 51% to 44% among likely voters. Under a low voter turnout scenario, Monmouth found that Biden’s lead is just five points among likely voters — 50% to 45%.
Monmouth defines a “low turnout scenario” as “a large number of mail ballots” being rejected.
Among all registered voters, Trump trails Biden by five points, 50% to 45%. Another 4% of respondents told Monmouth they are “undecided,” up from just 2% last month.
What is most significant about this final poll result before Election Day is that Trump has clearly gained ground on Biden over recent weeks. In fact, Monmouth’s September poll found Biden’s lead over Trump ranged from 11 points under a high voter turnout scenario to eight points under a low voter turnout scenario.
What is the bigger picture?
Trump has clearly gained ground on Biden in the closing weeks of the election, just as he did on Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Just a few weeks ago, Biden led Trump in national polling by an average of more than 10 points, according to RealClearPolitics. As of Monday, Biden’s average national lead has shrunk to under seven points.
Meanwhile, Biden’s lead in top battleground states has narrowed to under three points on average. It was five points just three weeks ago, according to RealClearPolitics.
Trump’s surge of momentum reportedly has Democratic operatives worried.
The Washington Post reported over the weekend that Democratic confidence in Pennsylvania “has eroded in recent weeks with emerging signs of a tightening contest in the state.”
Trump even won over the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, one of Pennsylvania’s largest newspapers, which endorsed Trump over the weekend. The newspaper had not endorsed a Republican for president in almost a half-century before this weekend’s announcement.
“This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972. But we believe Mr. Trump, for all his faults, is the better choice this year,” the newspaper’s editors wrote.