Germany’s military staffing crisis is forcing Berlin to reconsider mandatory conscription as Russia’s threat looms larger.
At a Glance
- Germany’s military is critically understaffed, threatening its defense capabilities
- Voluntary enlistment has dropped, while tensions with Russia rise
- A mixed model of mandatory and voluntary service is being proposed
- Policymakers fear backlash over potential remilitarization
- Reinstating conscription may be Germany’s best hope for defense readiness
Recruitment Breakdown
The Bundeswehr’s manpower crisis has reached alarming levels, with some reports indicating it could only sustain combat operations for two days in a full-scale conflict. Despite targeted efforts to lure young recruits through voluntary military service, enlistment declined by 7% in 2023, even as the threat from Russia escalated. A modest rebound—a 20% rise in applications at the start of 2025—offers limited reassurance.
Watch a report: Germany Considers Military Draft Return.
Berlin aims to staff 200,000 troops by 2031, but the current pace makes that a long shot. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has been candid: voluntarism may not be enough. He recently warned that Germany might be forced to resurrect conscription, a policy shelved in 2011 amid post-Cold War calm. According to Pistorius, the government plans to assess whether a Swedish-style hybrid model—blending selective drafting with voluntary enlistment—can deliver the numbers.
Conscription in a New Era
Pistorius’s approach hinges on phased adaptation: “We have agreed that we will initially rely on voluntarism,” he said, emphasizing that mandatory service looms if recruitment lags. The proposed model would allow the state to selectively draft only if volunteer levels fail to meet operational needs, echoing Sweden’s reactive structure introduced in 2017.
However, Germany’s historical baggage haunts the debate. Opponents cite fears of reawakening militarism and raising tensions within the EU. But with NATO projecting a potential Russian strike by 2030, some argue that resisting defense reform is a perilous luxury. Even Germany’s Chief of Defense, General Carsten Breuer, has flagged the growing “grey zone” of warfare, where hybrid tactics blur the line between peace and war.
Supporters of the conscription revival believe that standing idle is a greater risk. As one analyst noted, “It’s no longer just about helping Ukraine. It’s about whether Germany itself could survive the first week of a war.”
Balancing Fear and Responsibility
Germany’s geopolitical credibility hinges on its readiness to act. Despite being a leading voice in Ukraine’s defense, Berlin’s own ability to protect its borders remains in doubt. The Bundeswehr’s frailty has become a growing liability not just for Germany, but for NATO’s eastern front.
Germany’s shift to a stronger defense posture reflects a reassessment of national resilience. Public sentiment is mixed—some young Germans welcome the call to service, while others resist returning to militaristic norms. Policymakers face the challenge of restoring deterrence without causing panic. With security needs increasing and voluntary recruitment faltering, the move toward conscription may hinge more on survival than choice.
