Becerra SURGES—Shocks California Governor Race

Speaker addressing a crowd at an immigration rights rally with protest signs in the background

Xavier Becerra catapults to the top of California’s 2026 governor primary poll, upending expectations just weeks before voters decide the top-two contenders.

Story Highlights

Emerson poll of May 9-10 shows Becerra at 19%, surging 9 points from mid-April to lead the field for the first time.
Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer tie at 17%, with 12% undecided and 40% of decided voters open to switching.
Becerra dominates Democrats at 31%, fueled by Eric Swalwell’s late April exit that consolidated votes.
Economy tops voter concerns at 41%, testing candidates amid GOP vote split and California’s top-two primary rules.
Mail ballots loom as Democrats push late voting to secure a spot in the November general election.

Becerra’s Meteoric Rise Reshapes the Race

Xavier Becerra, former HHS Secretary and California Attorney General, leads the June 2026 primary with 19% in the Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters. His support jumped from 10% in mid-April, marking the first time a Democrat tops the field. Eric Swalwell’s exit in late April freed Democratic votes, propelling Becerra from single digits to frontrunner status. Among Democrats, he commands 31% support, with leans pushing him to 20% overall.

GOP Split Hands Democrats an Opening

Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco divide their base, allowing Becerra’s ascent. Hilton holds 17%, steady but stagnant despite a loyal 73% definite voters, strong among men and over-50s. Bianco trails at 14%. Tom Steyer, the billionaire Democrat, ties Hilton at 17%, gaining 3 points with appeal to younger voters. Katie Porter sits at 10%, boosted by a controversial ad, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has 8%.

Voter Fluidity Keeps the Race Unpredictable

Undecideds stand at 12%, down from higher early figures, but 40% of decided voters remain open to changing minds. California’s top-two primary advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party to November, amplifying stakes. Democrats, with 46% registration versus Republicans’ 24%, strategize late mail voting to block a GOP sweep. Early May Democratic tracking polls showed Becerra at 13%, confirming his surge from 4% in early April.

Economy Dominates Voter Priorities

Voters rank the economy as the top issue at 41%, the highest since April 2025. Becerra pitches his executive experience from HHS and AG roles to address housing, costs, and growth in California’s $3 trillion economy. Critics scrutinize his long government record, but facts show his rise aligns with Democratic consolidation. Common sense favors leaders with proven track records over untested outsiders, though GOP loyalty like Hilton’s tests that logic.

Bombshell new California governor poll shows Xavier Becerra surge to the top https://t.co/E019OBbI6E pic.twitter.com/Uw5w6gzX3n

— New York Post (@nypost) May 13, 2026

Scrutiny and Momentum Collide Ahead of Primary

With the June primary three weeks away, mail ballots begin distribution soon. Becerra faces intensified review of his HHS tenure and AG decisions, yet polls like Mellman Group’s show him tied atop in some surveys. Newsom stays unendorsed, his silence fueling speculation on 2028 ambitions. GOP candidates risk elimination if their split persists, while Democrats eye avoiding a repeat of past vulnerabilities.