Texas Senate Race: $128 Million Battle Royale

A Super PAC aligned with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton reportedly ran television ads in the Mar-a-Lago area of Florida, targeting an audience of one: former President Donald Trump.

Story Snapshot

Pro-Paxton Super PAC allegedly aired ads near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence to court endorsement in Texas Senate primary
The 2026 GOP race between Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn has become the most expensive Senate primary in history at $128 million
Polls show Paxton leading Cornyn in a bruising MAGA versus establishment Republican battle that could determine Senate control
Both candidates aggressively court Trump while attacking each other’s electability and loyalty to conservative values

When Political Warfare Goes to Palm Beach

The decision to run ads outside Texas entirely demonstrates how the 2026 Senate race has transcended state boundaries to become a referendum on the future of Republican politics. Aiming commercials at Mar-a-Lago represents perhaps the most direct appeal for Trump’s blessing imaginable. Rather than compete in Texas media markets where voters actually cast ballots, Paxton’s supporters recognized that one man’s opinion in Florida might matter more than millions of Texans combined. This strategic gambit underscores Trump’s stranglehold on GOP primaries and the lengths candidates will travel for his endorsement.

The geographic targeting reveals sophisticated political calculation. Trump maintains his primary residence at Mar-a-Lago and frequently watches television there, making Palm Beach’s airwaves valuable real estate for ambitious Republicans. Paxton has positioned himself as the MAGA champion against Cornyn’s establishment credentials, despite Cornyn’s 99 percent Trump voting record. Running ads where Trump might see them while flipping channels converts campaign dollars into potential face time with the kingmaker himself.

The Costliest Republican Family Fight

The Texas Senate primary has shattered spending records with $128 million burned through before voting day. Cornyn’s Super PAC Texans for Conservative Majority has unleashed over $100 million in attack ads against Paxton, hammering his legal troubles and warning his baggage could flip the seat to Democrats. Paxton counters by branding Cornyn as desperate and establishment, claiming three statewide election victories prove his electability. The financial arms race has enriched political consultants while bombarding Texas voters with increasingly negative messaging that risks depressing Republican turnout.

Cornyn recruited Trump’s 2024 campaign strategists Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio to run his Super PAC, attempting to borrow Trump’s aura without the formal endorsement. Paxton formed two new political action committees on March 4, the Texas First Leadership PAC and Ken Paxton Victory Fund, signaling escalation as primary day approaches. Dark money from groups like Preserve Texas Inc. floods the race, with major donors including Douglas Scharbauer contributing $250,000 to Paxton’s efforts and John Nau steering $2.9 million toward Cornyn. The spending reflects how both camps recognize this seat could determine whether Republicans maintain Senate control.

Scandals and Strategy Collide

Paxton carries substantial political baggage that Cornyn exploits relentlessly. The Attorney General survived a 2023 impeachment trial, settled securities fraud charges, and faces ongoing allegations about personal conduct. Cornyn argues these vulnerabilities will hand Democrats an easy victory in November against candidates like James Talarico, who Democrats hope can capitalize on Republican infighting. Paxton dismisses these attacks as establishment desperation, pointing to his consistent conservative record suing the Obama and Biden administrations on immigration and federal overreach.

The electability debate cuts both ways. Paxton supporters view Cornyn’s Senate mastery and legislative dealmaking as liabilities in an anti-establishment era, painting him as a country club Republican out of touch with grassroots conservatives. Cornyn counters that his experience advancing Trump’s judicial confirmations and legislative agenda makes him irreplaceable for future conservative victories. Polls currently favor Paxton, though no candidate appears positioned to avoid a May runoff by capturing 50 percent in the March primary. That extended timeline could further damage whoever emerges as the nominee.

The Trump Endorsement Waiting Game

Both candidates compete desperately for Trump’s blessing while the former president remains publicly neutral. Paxton’s firebrand style and aggressive litigation against Democratic administrations align naturally with Trump’s combative approach, yet Cornyn’s fundraising prowess and institutional knowledge offer practical value. Trump enjoys watching Republicans fight over his approval, maintaining leverage while both candidates pledge absolute loyalty. The Mar-a-Lago ad strategy attempts to bypass the waiting game by making Paxton’s case directly to Trump through his television screen.

The winner faces serious general election challenges regardless of Trump’s decision. Democrats believe the vicious primary weakens whoever survives, particularly if Paxton’s scandals dominate media coverage or Cornyn appears damaged by MAGA attacks on his conservative credentials. The seat represents a potential pickup opportunity in a state Democrats have targeted for years, though Texas remains Republican-leaning. The $128 million spent destroying fellow Republicans may prove the ultimate gift to Democratic challengers hoping to exploit exhausted voters and tarnished nominees.